Lakers vs. Timberwolves: No LeBron, No Edwards — Who Wins in Minneapolis on Oct. 29?

The Los Angeles Lakers and Minnesota Timberwolves are set to clash at Target Center on Wednesday, October 29, 2025, in a Western Conference showdown that could reshape early-season playoff hopes. Tip-off is scheduled for 9:30 p.m. Eastern Time, broadcast nationally on ESPN — but this isn’t just another October game. With LeBron James sidelined by a nerve issue and Anthony Edwards out with a hamstring strain, both teams are playing without their emotional and offensive anchors. The stakes? Higher than the odds suggest.

Confusion in the Odds: Who’s Really Favored?

The betting lines tell a story of chaos. CBS Sports lists the Timberwolves as 7.5-point favorites, while a popular YouTube analysis claims the Lakers are actually favored by 3.5. One source says the over/under is 225.5; another says 229.5. Even Covers.com throws in a 224.5 total with conflicting point spreads. This isn’t just noise — it’s a red flag. When professional models and casual analysts can’t agree, it usually means one thing: the game’s outcome hinges on intangibles, not stats.

And here’s the twist: the Timberwolves are 0-4 against the spread this season. They lost to the Denver Nuggets 127-114 on Monday as 6.5-point underdogs at home. That’s not bad luck. That’s a pattern. They’re getting outplayed in crunch time, struggling to close games, and their defense looks brittle without Edwards’ perimeter pressure. Meanwhile, the Lakers, despite missing LeBron, are 1-0 on the road. They’ve shown resilience — and a willingness to lean on role players.

The Absent Stars and Who Steps Up

LeBron James, 40, isn’t just a scorer — he’s the team’s playmaker, leader, and emotional compass. His absence leaves a void that’s hard to fill. But the Lakers aren’t helpless. Anthony Davis is due for a monster game. He’s been quietly dominant this season, averaging 28 points and 12 rebounds. Without LeBron drawing double teams, Davis could feast inside. Add in Austin Reaves’ steady shooting and D’Angelo Russell’s ability to create in isolation, and the Lakers’ offense might just hum.

For Minnesota, losing Edwards — their 23-year-old scoring machine who averages 26.4 points per game — is catastrophic. He’s their primary driver, their clutch performer, their spark. Without him, the burden falls to Karl-Anthony Towns, who’s been inconsistent. And while Jaden McDaniels can defend, he doesn’t create his own shot. The Timberwolves’ offense becomes predictable: isolate Towns, hope he scores, pray the ball finds someone else.

Historical Context: Lakers Have the Edge — When Healthy

This rivalry has heated up. In their last meeting, the Lakers crushed the Timberwolves 128-110 at Crypto.com Arena, powered by a 49-point, 11-rebound, 8-assist masterpiece from LeBron. That game wasn’t just a win — it was a statement. The Timberwolves haven’t beaten the Lakers in regulation since March 2024. And while this matchup lacks their two superstars, the Lakers still have more depth, more playoff experience, and better coaching.

The SportsLine model, which has generated over $10,000 in profit on NBA picks this season, simulated the game 10,000 times. It projected 227 total points — slightly above the average of the conflicting lines — and leaned Over. That’s significant. If the model’s right, this won’t be a defensive slugfest. It’ll be a high-scoring, chaotic affair where the team that makes fewer mistakes wins.

What’s the Real Value? The Pick

Pickswise recommends Timberwolves -7 at -110, saying it’s playable up to -8. But here’s the thing: Minnesota is 0-4 ATS. The Lakers are 1-0 on the road. The Timberwolves are playing their second game in two nights. The Lakers? They’ve had two full days to rest and prepare.

And let’s not forget: the Lakers don’t need to win big. They just need to stay close. With Edwards out, Minnesota’s offense stalls in the fourth quarter. We’ve seen it. Over and over. The Lakers’ defense, led by Davis and Reaves, can contain Towns long enough to steal a win.

Lakers +7.5 is the play. Not because they’re better — but because the Timberwolves are too inconsistent to cover, especially without their best player. The line is inflated by hype, not history. The model says Over. The stats say Lakers can hang. The pattern says Timberwolves collapse.

What’s Next?

If the Lakers pull this off, they’ll be 3-2 on the season and 2-0 on the road — a serious statement in the brutal Western Conference. If the Timberwolves cover, it’ll be their first ATS win since October 15, and suddenly, their playoff chances look viable. But with Edwards still questionable for the next two games, Minnesota’s ceiling is limited.

This game isn’t just about wins and losses. It’s about identity. Who are these teams without their stars? The Lakers are proving they’re more than one man. The Timberwolves? They’re still waiting to find out.